NBA or National Basketball Association is the biggest basketball association in the world playing host to the biggest leagues available in basketball. Betting on basketball can be fun and profitable if done right, below we will cover some insights and things to look for when betting on any NBA game.
Trend
One of the best insights you can get into any betting event is the trend of the bettors. While the trend alone is not enough to assure good value, when applied with good research to for your own probability, the trend can go a long way in helping you find value in your bets. Let’s make a quick example of the trend, so you can better understand what is being referred to. We are presented with the following bet:
Los Angeles Lakers: + 585
Phoenix Suns: -760
Implied Probability
From the odds supplied, we know the sportsbook is giving us an implied probability of the Los Angeles Lakers having a roughly 85% chance of winning. Implied probability, however, is not always the real probability.
Probability Sway
We know that a lot of recreational bettors will bet on their favorite team regardless of the probability, in this case a Los Angeles Lakers fan would see the bet as a sure win and there are at this time roughly 10 times more Los Angeles Lakers fans than there are Phoenix Sun fans. To try and even out the betting on both positive and negative sides of the bet, sportsbooks will adjust the odds to make the negative side more enticing to bettors. This will usually create a situation where the underdog team can have a real probability of winning that is much higher than the probability implied by the odds. Often referred to as the “value” this is a great steppingstone to make your bets more successful across the board.
Using The Sway
In the example used above, we know that the implied odds are roughly 15% chance for the Phoenix Suns to take home the victory. This is where our research comes into play. In this hypothetical example, we have noted that the Phoenix Suns have historically done well at this event and are currently doing well in the league. We set our probability of winning at roughly 25% chance. The 10% discrepancy between the implied odds and our calculated odds is where we stand to make profit. Even though the likelihood of winning the bet is not great, if you were to win one out of four bets made with these odds in this fashion, you will still be profitable at the end of the day.
The Bottom Line
It is always important to remember that research is the most important factor in the NBA, as with any sport betting. With the correct research, anybody can be profitable. It is always more important to focus on long term smaller and consistent wins rather than the single big win. Being profitable in https://australiansportsbetting.net/nba/ betting is about consistency and dedication. Take all of these factors into consideration, and you are sure to be a winning bettor.